The slow season in DFW real estate usually shows up around the holidays. This year, buyers didn’t wait for it.
Last week, 1,005 homes were in pending status across the North Texas MLS. That’s the lowest count of 2026 and the third new low in three weeks. It’s also 314 fewer than the slowest week of this past winter.
In other words, fewer homes are under contract right now than in the dead of winter, and the dead of winter hasn’t even started.
Fewer buyers are signing contracts
Pending sales slid from 1,027 to 1,015 to 1,005 over the last three weeks. Closings fell 28% in one week, from 1,475 to 1,060. Fewer closings should leave more homes sitting in pending. Pending fell anyway, which means fewer new contracts are coming in.
Put pending and active option contracts together and you get 1,882 homes under contract. That’s down 28% from 2,602 eleven weeks ago, and about 45% below the spring, when it averaged 3,448 a week.
Closings tell the same story. At 1,060, we’re already below the 1,136-a-week average from the slowest stretch of last winter.
The mortgage data agrees
Freddie Mac’s 30-year average hit 7.40% on Oct. 8, up from 7.28% a week earlier and 6.30% a year ago. The Mortgage Bankers Association’s own survey put the 30-year at 7.49%, the highest in almost three years.
Buyers are responding the way you’d expect. Purchase applications fell 2% in the latest week and are 15% below the same week a year ago. An application comes before a contract, so expect pending sales to stay low into November.
Sellers haven’t slowed down
New listings came in at 1,976. Over the last nine weeks, new listings have stayed between 1,814 and 2,101 every single week, averaging about 1,960.
So roughly 2,000 new homes a week are competing for a buyer pool that keeps getting smaller. And 2,918 sellers already on the market cut their price last week. That’s 1.48 price cuts for every new listing. In the spring, it ran about one to one.
More listings are failing
The 90-day average for expired listings rose to 352, a new high for 2026 and the second in a row. Last week, 230 listings expired and 617 were canceled. That’s 847 homes that left the market unsold, against 1,060 that closed.
More than four in ten homes that left the market last week left without selling.
What this means if you’re buying
You have less competition than you’ve had all year. That gives you room to negotiate on price, repairs, closing costs, and your interest rate, all in the same offer.
Rates are the hard part right now, so think about where the seller’s money does the most for you. On a $500,000 home, $15,000 toward a permanent rate buydown can save you more than twice as much each month as the same $15,000 off the price. Here’s the full breakdown of rate buydown vs. price reduction, including when the price cut wins.
If the payment works for your budget, write the offer and ask for everything you need.
What this means if you’re selling
You’re competing with about 2,000 new listings a week for fewer buyers, heading into the slowest season of the year. The listings that sit and expire are the ones that started at last spring’s price.
Price for the buyers who are actually out there on day one. Decide before you list what you’ll do if you don’t have an offer in three weeks.
If you don’t need to sell this fall, ask yourself whether waiting a few months costs you anything. For some sellers, it doesn’t.
The honest caveat
Two things to keep in mind.
These are DFW-wide numbers. They come from the North Texas MLS (NTREIS) and cover the whole metro, not just North Fort Worth, Haslet, Keller, and Saginaw.
The expired number runs a little hot. Six-month listing agreements roll off at the end of each month, which creates a spike in expireds. One of those spikes (936 expireds) landed the week before, and it’s inside the 90-day window. Cancellations aren’t tied to the calendar, and they tell a slightly softer story: 617 last week, down from 710 the week before and below the year’s high of 775.
Not every number fell, either. Active option contracts ticked up 3%, from 851 to 877. One week doesn’t make a turnaround, but it’s worth watching.
For the longer view, read the North Fort Worth housing market update for August 2026.
Frequently asked questions
Is the DFW housing market slowing down?
Yes. Pending sales hit a 2026 low for the third straight week, at 1,005, and homes under contract are about 45% below the spring. Purchase mortgage applications are 15% lower than a year ago.
Are home prices dropping in DFW?
This data counts listings and contracts, not sale prices. What it does show is pressure on prices: 2,918 price cuts in one week, or 1.48 for every new listing, compared with about one to one in the spring.
Is now a good time to buy a house in DFW?
If the payment fits your budget, you have more negotiating room than at any point this year. With rates above 7%, ask the seller to put money toward your rate, closing costs, or price.
Why are so many listings expiring?
Mostly price. More than four in ten homes that left the market last week didn’t sell. With fewer buyers and steady new listings, homes priced above the market sit until the listing runs out.
Curious where your house actually sits in all this? Find out here.
Data notes: Weekly counts from the North Texas Real Estate Information Systems (NTREIS) MLS, DFW-wide, Week 42 of 2026, from Your Property Geek’s weekly tracking. “Spring” for contracts is the average of pending plus active option for the weeks of mid-April through early May (3,448). “Slowest week of this past winter” for pending is 1,319. Winter closings average is the five weekly readings from late January through February (1,136). Spring price-cut ratio averaged 1.00 to 1.03. Sources: Freddie Mac PMMS, Oct. 8, 2026, MBA Weekly Survey, week ending Oct. 2, 2026, MBA Newslink, Oct. 7, 2026.
