DFW Housing Market Update, February 2026: Buyers Are Back, Prices Are Down, and Spring Is About to Get Interesting

The February DFW housing market numbers are in. And the story inside the data is one that matters whether you're buying, selling, or just watching from the sidelines.

Here's the short version: buyer activity is climbing fast. Prices are still falling. And the next few months could be the most balanced window this market has seen in years.

If you watched my YouTube breakdown of this month's data, you already know the headlines. This post goes deeper. Every stat, every chart, and a few data points I didn't have time to cover on camera. Bookmark this one if you want the full picture.

Let's get into it.

February 2026 DFW Market Snapshot

Source: NTREIS Market Watch, February 2026. Rate data: Freddie Mac PMMS, March 12, 2026.

3 Things DFW Home Buyers and Sellers Need to Know Right Now

Before we get into the data, here's what it's telling us.

1. Buyers have the most leverage they've had in years. More homes to choose from, softer prices, and interest rates that are significantly lower than 12 months ago. That combination creates room to negotiate that hasn't existed in the DFW market for a while.

2. Sellers, your pricing strategy has never mattered more. Demand is there. Buyers are writing offers. But the days of throwing a home on the MLS and watching bidding wars unfold? Those are behind us. The sellers who are winning right now are the ones who price based on where the market IS, not where it was.

3. Spring is going to be active, but not frenzied. We're heading into a season built on balance, not panic. That's good news for both sides of the transaction, if you know how to play it.

Now let's look at the proof.

DFW Home Buyer Demand, February 2026

Home Showings Are Surging

This is the stat I'm watching closest. Shows per listing tells you how many times the average home is being shown to a potential buyer. It's one of the best leading indicators we have for where demand is heading.

In December, it was 2.9. In January, it jumped to 3.9. And in February, it hit 4.2.

That's a 45% increase in two months. And it's up 2.4% compared to this time last year.

What's driving it? Interest rates. The 30-year fixed mortgage dipped into the high 5% range briefly in February before settling back around 6.1% as of mid-March (source: Freddie Mac PMMS, March 12, 2026). That's more than half a percentage point lower than a year ago. It doesn't sound like much, but on a $350,000 home, that difference translates to real purchasing power.

If you're a buyer, the window where you have leverage over sellers is real, but it's narrowing. That showings number is climbing every single month. More buyers are waking up. The negotiating power you have right now erodes as spring picks up.

DFW Pending Sales Turn Positive Year Over Year

Pending sales came in at 9,380 for February, up from 8,323 in January. Year over year, that's a 0.3% increase.

I know. 0.3% doesn't sound exciting. But context matters. This is the first time in a while that pending sales have turned positive year over year. That means more homes are going under contract now than at this same point in 2025. The direction of the trend matters more than the size.

Closed Sales: Down Year Over Year, Up Month Over Month

Year over year, closed sales are down 7.4%. That sounds rough. But the month-to-month picture tells a different story. Closed sales jumped from 6,505 in January to 7,507 in February. That's a healthy seasonal uptick as we move toward spring.

The year-over-year decline reflects the tail end of a market where higher rates kept some buyers on the sidelines through 2025. The month-over-month improvement reflects the fact that those buyers are starting to come back.

DFW Housing Inventory and Supply, February 2026

Homes for Sale in Dallas-Fort Worth

After staying flat from December to January, total active inventory ticked up to 42,375 homes in February. That's up from 41,435 in January. Even with that increase, overall inventory is still down 0.7% from this time last year.

In other words, the market absorbed enough of the inventory gains through buyer activity that total supply is roughly flat year over year. That's a sign of a market that's finding balance.

New Listings Are Up in DFW

New listings are up 4.7% year over year. We went from 14,263 new listings in January to 15,597 in February. Sellers are entering the market. More of them than last year, actually.

Here's how these two stats connect: more new listings (up 4.7%) but total inventory still slightly below last year (down 0.7%) tells you that homes are getting absorbed. The supply is building, but demand is keeping pace enough that inventory isn't piling up.

How Long Does It Take to Sell a House in DFW Right Now?

Days on market came in at 57 days. That's up 11.8% from this time last year. However, it's actually down one day from January, which was 58.

This has been a rising trend for the last couple of years. Homes are taking longer to sell than they did during the frenzy years. That's not alarming. It's a market returning to a more normal pace where buyers take time to make decisions and negotiate rather than panic-buying in 48 hours.

If your home is sitting past the 60-day mark, it's not the market's fault. It's likely a pricing or preparation issue. In a market with 57-day averages and climbing showings, well-priced homes are moving. Overpriced homes are sitting.

DFW Market Dynamics: Months of Supply and Pricing Trends

Months of Supply in the Dallas-Fort Worth Market

After staying flat for two consecutive months (which is a little unusual), months of supply ticked up slightly from 4.2 to 4.3. Year over year, that's actually down 2.3%.

Quick context: a balanced market is generally considered to be around 6 months of supply. Anything under that tends to favor sellers. At 4.3 months, DFW is still technically in seller-favorable territory, though it certainly doesn't feel like a strong seller's market. And for good reason.

Here's the longer-term picture that I think matters. If you look at the rolling 12-month average for months of supply, there was a very steady increase starting in late 2022. That climb continued all the way through about October 2025. Since then? It's leveled off at about 5.1%. That 5.1% is still up 15.9% from this time last year. But the fact that it hasn't increased since October tells me the market may be finding its footing. Inventory isn't piling up. It's stabilizing.

DFW Median Home Price, February 2026

The number everyone asks about.

The median sales price in DFW is $355,000. That's down 3.7% from this time last year. It is up from January, which was $350,000, a normal seasonal uptick as we move toward spring.

Here's the context. For the first time since 2023, the median dipped below $360,000 back in November, and it hasn't recovered above that line since.

Winter price dips are seasonal. They happen every year. Prices drop in the colder months and typically climb in spring and summer. That pattern is normal. What's a little different this year is that the dip went further than expected and stayed there longer.

With rates sitting more than half a percentage point lower than last year, buyers have more purchasing power. More purchasing power tends to support prices. So the question for the rest of 2026 is whether spring brings the median back above last year's peak or whether we've found a new baseline.

We don't have the answer yet. But the early signals from showings, pending sales, and rate trends are cautiously positive.

DFW Average Home Price, February 2026

The average sales price came in at $449,845. That's down just 0.4% from this time last year and up from January's $442,255.

The average holding up better than the median tells us something: the higher end of the DFW market is performing relatively well compared to the middle. Luxury and upper-mid properties are seeing less downward pressure than the median-priced segment.

What Are DFW Homes Selling For Relative to List Price?

One more chart worth looking at. The percentage of original list price tells you how much negotiating is happening between listing and closing. This trend has been shifting in favor of buyers for the last couple of years, and it's a key indicator of how much room you have at the negotiation table right now.

DFW Housing Market Prediction: Spring and Summer 2026

Here's my honest read on what the next few months look like.

I think we're heading into a spring market built on balance, not frenzy. Transaction volume will increase. But this isn't 2021. You're not going to see 30 offers on every house. The market is shifting from "always hot" to "selectively hot."

Here's what that means in practice.

Inventory will stay high. Buyers will have the most choices they've had in years. This includes both resale homes and a wave of new construction in the northern suburbs. Builders in areas like Celina, Prosper, and across Denton County are adding significant inventory and competing aggressively on incentives, rate buydowns, and upgrades. That puts real pressure on resale sellers to price competitively.

DFW home prices will stay flat or dip slightly. I expect home values across the DFW metro to land somewhere in the range of flat to about 2-4% below last year. This is not a crash. This is a recalibration. Sellers who enter the spring market need to price their homes based on current comparable sales, not what their neighbor got 12 months ago. Overpriced homes will sit, and in a market where the average home takes nearly two months to sell, sitting is expensive.

Mortgage rates will bring more buyers off the fence. Rates are projected to hover in the high 5% to low 6% range through spring. That improving affordability, combined with softer home prices, is going to draw out buyers who put their plans on hold in 2024 and 2025. First-time buyers and families who delayed because the math didn't work will start to re-enter the market. The math is starting to work again.

Buyers will have negotiating power. Expect buyers to continue successfully negotiating closing cost credits, rate buydowns, and repairs. Sellers are more willing to work with buyers now than at any point in the last several years.

But demand is real. DFW continues to attract corporate relocations and population growth. People are moving here. That engine hasn't slowed down. For sellers, that means the buyers are there. But your home needs to earn the offer. It won't just show up because you listed it.

What DFW Buyers and Sellers Should Do Right Now

If you're a buyer right now: This is the most favorable environment you've had in years. You have choices, you have negotiating leverage, and rates are lower than last year. But watch that showings number. More buyers are entering the market every month. The window where you can negotiate from strength is right now, not three months from now when everyone else decides to jump in.

If you're a seller right now: The demand is there and it's growing. But preparation and pricing are everything. Get your home move-in ready. Price it where the data says it should be, not where you hope it should be. Market it well. The sellers who do those three things are going to have a strong spring. The sellers who wing it are going to wonder why their home is sitting at 90 days.

The bottom line: The people who have a plan are going to do really well in this market. The people who are guessing are going to struggle.

Want to Talk About Your Specific Situation?

If you've been thinking about buying or selling in 2026, I'd love to help you figure out what makes sense for YOUR numbers, YOUR timeline, and YOUR goals. Not the general market. Your situation.

I do a quick, no-pressure intro call where we look at where you are and map out a plan. Schedule your free intro call here.

Not quite ready for that? No problem. Get a free AI-powered home valuation to see what your home could sell for in today's market.

Frequently Asked Questions About the DFW Housing Market

Is the DFW housing market crashing in 2026?

No. The DFW housing market is not crashing. Prices are down about 3.7% year over year at the median, which reflects a recalibration after years of rapid appreciation, not a collapse. Buyer activity is actually increasing: showings are up 2.4% year over year, and pending sales just turned positive for the first time in months. DFW also continues to attract new residents through corporate relocations and population growth, which supports ongoing demand.

Is now a good time to buy a home in Dallas-Fort Worth?

For many buyers, yes. The current market offers a combination that hasn't existed in years: more inventory, softer prices, lower interest rates than 2025, and real negotiating power on closing costs, rate buydowns, and repairs. Whether now is the right time depends on your personal finances, timeline, and goals, but the market conditions are the most buyer-friendly they've been since before the pandemic.

Is now a good time to sell a home in DFW?

It can be, if you price strategically. Demand is growing. Showings and pending sales are both trending upward. But the days of listing high and waiting for a bidding war are over. Homes priced accurately for the current market and in move-in condition are selling. Homes that are overpriced are sitting. Pricing strategy is the single biggest factor in seller outcomes right now.

What are mortgage rates in Texas right now?

As of mid-March 2026, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate is averaging around 6.1% nationally, according to Freddie Mac. That's down from 6.65% at the same time last year. Rates are projected to stay in the high 5% to low 6% range through spring 2026. Your actual rate depends on your credit score, down payment, loan type, and lender. This is not financial advice. Talk to a qualified lender about your specific situation.

How long does it take to sell a house in DFW right now?

57 days on average as of February 2026, up 11.8% from a year ago. Well-priced, move-in-ready homes are selling faster than that average. Overpriced or poorly prepared homes are sitting well beyond it. If your home has been on the market past 60 days, the most likely issue is pricing.

What is months of supply in the DFW housing market?

4.3 months as of February 2026. A balanced market is generally considered to be around 6 months. Below 6 months tends to favor sellers, above 6 months tends to favor buyers. At 4.3 months, DFW technically favors sellers, but the market feels more balanced than that number suggests because buyers have significantly more choices and negotiating leverage than during the 2021-2022 peak.

What is the median home price in Dallas-Fort Worth?

$355,000 as of February 2026, down 3.7% from the same time last year. The median has been below $360,000 since November 2025, which is the first time it's stayed at that level since 2023. The average sale price is $449,845, down just 0.4% year over year, indicating the upper end of the market is holding up better than the middle.

Data source: NTREIS Market Watch, February 2026. Rate data: Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey, March 12, 2026. This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. Consult a qualified professional for advice specific to your situation.