December 2025 Market Update
DFW Housing Market Data Breakdown: Pending Sales, Failed Listings, Inventory, and Pricing Trends
What the data actually says. and what it means if you’re buying or selling.
Executive Summary
If you only read one section, read this.
Here’s the current state of the DFW housing market in November 2025:
- Market condition: In many price ranges, the market continues to reward homes that are priced and positioned correctly, while listings that miss the mark take longer and face more negotiation.
- Biggest seller risk right now: Overpricing early and relying on the market to “catch up,” even as buyers negotiate more than they did last year.
- Biggest buyer opportunity right now: More leverage through time and negotiation, especially on homes that don’t generate early momentum.
- Strategic takeaway: The market is not frozen or broken. It is more selective, and strategy matters more than averages.
This report explains why those conclusions show up in the data below.
Watch the Full DFW Housing Market Breakdown
This blog post is paired with a full video breakdown where I walk through the same DFW housing market data step by step and explain how these numbers connect in real time.
If you prefer to watch instead of read. or if you want additional context around the charts and trends. the video covers:
- Why pending sales and closings are sending mixed signals
- How failed listings explain changes in inventory
- What pricing and negotiation trends mean for buyers and sellers right now
You can watch the full video below. Then continue reading for deeper explanations, charts, and definitions you can reference later.
This video and article are designed to work together. The video explains the story behind the numbers. The blog gives you the details you can come back to.
1. Supply Pressure
How much competition sellers are facing
New Listings vs Closed Sales
What changed this month
• New listings: 11,384
• Closed sales: 7,765
Month over month, both new listings and closings declined. That is typical heading into November and December and reflects normal seasonal behavior rather than a sudden shift in fundamentals.
Year over year:
• New listings: −3.1%
• Closed sales: −10.0%
Why this matters
When closings fall faster than new listings year over year, it usually signals that buyers are taking longer to decide and being more selective about which homes they pursue.
Who this favors right now
Buyers have more leverage than they did last November, particularly when a home is not clearly priced or prepared relative to its competition.
Active Inventory
What changed this month
• Total active homes: 46,681
• Month over month: −7.7%
• Year over year: +3.1%
Why this matters
Inventory shapes buyer choice. Even with the seasonal dip from October, total inventory remains slightly higher than last year, which supports more buyer selectivity than we saw in late 2024.
Inventory by itself does not determine outcomes. That’s why it needs to be viewed alongside buyer behavior and months of supply.
Failed Listings (Expired + Withdrawn + Cancelled)
How failed listings are defined
In this report, “failed listings” are homes that exited the market without selling due to expiration, withdrawal, or cancellation.
To keep this grounded in reality, this number also reconciles mathematically:
Failed Listings = New Listings − Closed Sales − Net Change in Total Inventory
In plain English. Failed listings explain why inventory doesn’t move exactly the way you’d expect based only on new listings and sales.
What changed this month
• November 2025 failed listings: 7,523
• October 2025 failed listings: 7,446 (MoM: +1.03%)
• November 2024 failed listings: 4,482 (YoY: +67.85%)
Why this matters
Failed listings are one of the clearest indicators of how forgiving the market is.
A failed listing does not automatically mean the house was undesirable. More often, it means the strategy did not align with buyer expectations, particularly around:
- Price relative to nearby competition
- Condition and presentation at that price point
- Early momentum in the first two weeks on market
What this suggests right now
With failed listings up nearly 68% year over year, the market is far less tolerant of “almost right” pricing and preparation than it was last fall.
Homes that are clearly positioned tend to sell. Homes that miss the mark are increasingly likely to exit the market without a sale.
2. Buyer Commitment
Are buyers watching, acting, or hesitating?
Pending Sales
What changed this month
• Pending sales: 8,224
• Month over month: −11.8%
• Year over year: +3.3%
Why this matters
Pending sales reflect buyer commitment, not just interest.
The year-over-year increase suggests buyers are still entering contracts, even though month-to-month activity slowed seasonally.
Closed Sales
What changed this month
• Closed sales: 7,765
• Month over month: −18.7%
• Year over year: −10.0%
Why this matters
Closings confirm completed transactions. The year-over-year decline shows fewer deals are finishing than last November, which aligns with longer timelines and increased negotiation seen elsewhere in the data.
Without cancellation or fallout data, it’s important not to over-assign a single cause. Timing, financing, and buyer caution can all contribute.
3. Market Balance & Outcomes
What happens when supply meets demand
Months of Supply
Current months of supply: 4.8
Months of supply measures how long it would take to sell the current inventory at the current pace of sales, assuming no new listings are added.
- Month over month: down from 5.2
- Year over year: up slightly from 4.7
How to interpret this level
By traditional definitions, this sits near balanced territory. However, the on-the-ground experience feels more buyer-friendly than the headline number alone suggests, due to longer market times and increased negotiation.
Price Trends
Headline prices
• Median sales price: $352,717 (−2.0% MoM, −5.4% YoY)
• Average sales price: $445,613 (−3.6% MoM, −4.7% YoY)
• Median price per square foot: $180 (−1.1% MoM, −4.3% YoY)
What’s happening underneath
• Median days on market: 48 (up from 39 last November)
• Median percent of original list price: 94.8% (down from 95.9% last November)
The “percent of original price” shows how close a home sold relative to its initial asking price. A lower percentage means buyers are negotiating more off list price.
Why this matters
Compared to November 2024, homes are taking about nine more days to sell and are closing for roughly one percentage point less of their original list price. That combination points to more negotiation and more time required to achieve a sale.
4. Strategy Section
What the data suggests actually works right now
If You’re Selling in the Next 90 Days
Based on this month’s data:
- Expect negotiation. Buyers are paying a smaller percentage of list price than last year.
- Plan for a longer runway. Median days on market are materially higher year over year.
- Early positioning matters more. Listings that fail to generate early traction are increasingly likely to stall or exit the market.
Biggest seller mistake this data reveals:
Pricing as if conditions are unchanged from last year, then adjusting only after weeks of low activity.
If You’re Buying in the Next 90 Days
Based on this month’s data:
- Negotiation is more realistic than last year. Percent-of-list and DOM both support that.
- Time can work in your favor. Homes that sit past the median days on market tend to offer more flexibility.
- Stay selective, not passive. Pending sales are slightly higher than last year, so well-positioned homes still move.
5. Methodology & Notes
- Data source: Monthly DFW aggregate housing data
- Timeframe: November 2025 snapshot
- Comparisons: October 2025 (MoM) and November 2024 (YoY)
This is DFW-wide data. Individual neighborhoods, price points, and property types can behave very differently. Patterns here describe the overall market, not every street.
No single stat tells the full story. This report focuses on patterns, not predictions.
Final Thought
The market isn’t broken.
It’s more selective.
Buyers aren’t gone.
They’re cautious, informed, and negotiating.
If you want clarity for your specific neighborhood and price range, that’s where the real advantage comes from.
What’s next
If you want a deeper breakdown for your home or your target area, reach out and I’ll walk the numbers through your situation.
FAQ. DFW Housing Market Mixed Signals Explained
Q: Why are pending sales up but closings down in the DFW housing market?
A: Pending sales show buyer intent. They measure how many homes go under contract. Closings show completed results. They measure how many homes actually finish the transaction. When pendings rise while closings fall, it often means deals are taking longer to close, more deals are falling apart, or both.
Q: What is the difference between a pending sale and a closed sale?
A: A pending sale means the buyer and seller agreed on a deal, but it has not finished yet. A closed sale means the deal finished and ownership officially changed hands. Pendings are the “under contract” stage. Closings are the finish line.
Q: What are “failed listings” and why do they matter for sellers?
A: Failed listings are homes that leave the market without selling. Usually because they expired, were withdrawn, or were canceled. Failed listings matter because they show where listings go when they don’t sell. They also explain why inventory can change in ways that confuse people.
Q: How do you calculate failed listings using inventory math?
A: One practical way is to reconcile the monthly change in inventory. A common method is:
Failed Listings = New Listings − Closed Sales − (This Month’s Inventory − Last Month’s Inventory)
This helps explain the gap between how many homes came on, how many sold, and why the total inventory changed.
Q: If inventory goes down, does that always mean the market is strong?
A: Not always. Inventory can drop because homes are selling. But it can also drop because listings expire, withdraw, or get canceled. That’s why it helps to look at new listings, closed sales, and failed listings together instead of only the inventory total.
Q: What does “months of supply” mean, and what does it tell us right now?
A: Months of supply estimates how long it would take to sell the current inventory at the current pace of sales. Lower months of supply usually favors sellers. Higher months of supply usually favors buyers. It’s a useful big-picture metric, but it should be read alongside negotiation and time on market.
Q: What does it mean when homes sell for 94.8% of original list price?
A: It means buyers are negotiating more and sellers are conceding more than they did when the market was tighter. Even a one-point drop can signal more price reductions, repair credits, or closing cost concessions across the market.
Q: Why does “almost right” pricing fail in today’s DFW market?
A: In a more selective market, buyers compare your home to competing listings quickly. If your price is slightly above what buyers think is fair for the condition and competition, the listing can lose early momentum. Once a listing sits, buyers often negotiate harder or move on.
Q: What should sellers do to protect net proceeds in a more negotiable market?
A: Focus on three things. Price correctly upfront based on current competition. Create strong early momentum with presentation and positioning. Be intentional with concessions, and negotiate the terms that protect your net most.
Q: What should buyers watch for if they want leverage in DFW?
A: Look for listings with longer days on market, recent price reductions, or signs the seller is open to concessions. Also watch the gap between pending sales and closed sales, since it can signal more friction and negotiation opportunities.
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